Oman, my current location, is an oasis of calm in a region that
seems to be convulsing with violence. Bombs by Sunni extremists and mass killings
by security services in Pakistan trigger a new form of protests - refusing to bury the dead; Syria each day a horror story; Iraq still
hit by daily bombings and protests.
Further away in Mali a war with France against ‘terrorists’
is underway, with Britain in a supporting role; in Algeria militants seize
hundreds at an oil installation in retaliation against the French. Weapon stockpiles looted from Libya after the fall of Qaddafi are now put to deadly use.
The Muslim world is in a process of violent and revolutionary change. America under Obama is like America under Clinton – reluctant to engage
in conflicts in far flung places after a decade of wars. So Britain and France
step into the breach. France is gung ho after staying out of Iraq and playing a
small part in Afghanistan. But they have been humiliated 'Black Hawk Down' style in their botched
rescue of a hostage in Somalia. It is truly extraordinary, exactly 20 years after Bill Clinton got burnt with a simliar operation to hear that French forces met with 'unexpected resistance' in Somalia. Meanwhile the Mali escapade already looks like it could
escalate into something much more difficult. France would probably like to
intervene in Syria, its former colony, but Russia stands in the way.
Meanwhile life here seems to go serenely
on. Even when locals look at me strangely, I don’t detect hostility. But
perhaps under the surface there is something there. Clients of the West like
Jordan and Oman have to be nervous. That role of being stuck between big
players is familiar to both – Oman between Saudi Arabia and Iran; Jordan
between Israel and Egypt. If you don’t play it right, you end up like
Lebanon or Syria.
Oman is what a friend called the Switzerland of the Middle
East – it remains resolutely neutral and stays friendly with all its neighbours. It’s a small country and it
pays not to take sides. Perhaps this commonality is partly why there are so
many Palestinians and Jordanians here – but may be more because here there are
paying jobs and prospects and in Jordan there aren’t.
A well connected Palestinian
from Jordan living here told me that one in three Jordanian men were informers
to the security services. I wonder what the proportion is here in the
Sultanate? It’s not an accident that taxi drivers’ licence plates belong to the Royal Omani Police. And it may
explain why cabbies are often so curious.
