Opinion and observation on a world gone crazy

Joe Gill, journalist and game inventor from Brighton, UK

Thursday, 20 July 2017

Grenfell and 9/11: Investigating a crime

It is reported that police forensic investigators on the site of the Grenfell Tower disaster will turn to the forensic teams who worked on the 9/11 attacks because of similarities in scale of the events.
The forensic investigation into 9/11 reportedly cost $80 million. As New Scientist reported last year: "An estimated 2753 people were killed at the World Trade Center site. Just 293 bodies were found intact, and 21,900 pieces were recovered from the debris. Despite the most costly forensic investigation in US history ($80 million so far), the remains of 1113 people are unidentified."
As the New Scientist review of a book on the process of victim identification suggests - perhaps unconsciously - 9/11 investigators faced peculiar problems not just of scale - but due to the explosive collapse of the Twin Towers.
I don't think the following sentences will ever be written about Grenfell, since there was no "blast" and body parts are surely unlikely to ever be found on adjacent buildings. A normal fire - if you can call Grenfell normal, considering the criminal negligence that led to it - do not scatter remains so widely.
"We learn how some first responders tried to “reconstruct” bodies, often mingling remains from different people in one body bag. He tells how the blast meant that sometimes parts from one person ended up inside the body cavity of another. And how the different authorities failed to coordinate on the most basic levels, adding to the confusion.
"The inexperience of the New York Police Department in mass gathering of information and biological samples made the OCME’s job harder, because the collection of DNA samples was haphazard and didn’t follow protocols. And although initial recovery efforts focused on the 16-acre site of the World Trade Center, for years afterwards, body parts were still being found in vent shafts, roofs and on ledges of neighbouring buildings."
Clearly I am no scientist or forensic expert, but video footage of 9/11 shows that the collapse of the two towers was so violent that debris was spread far and wide. Despite fires at Grenfell burning at 1000 degrees centigrade for several hours there was no comparable collapse - or "blast" as the New Scientist writer put it, in a strangely revealing way.
For a more scientific review of the terrible events of 9/11, please see the interview with a former National Institute of Scientific Research (NIST) employee Peter Michael Ketcham, who raises profound questions about the nature of the events that puts them into a very different category than Grenfell.
NIST carried out the investigation into the collapse of WTC7 on 9/11, the third building to collapse that day. Ketcham questions their methodology, and confesses his own blindness to the nature of the events until recently. He no longer works for NIST.

Ketcham says that the official narrative of 9/11 may be slowly collapsing. Perhaps it will undergo a rapid collapse like the Twin Towers did, much to the surprise of many news commentators on the day, who described the collapses as looking like a controlled demolition. That idea - of blasts and demolition - disappeared from the public discourse soon after and was forced into the territory of the so-called truth movement. Ketchum is not your classic truther and neither are the scores of scientists who do not accept the official story. Of course, they remain a minority. After 16 years of a bloody war on terror, what they say should be heard and more importantly, listened to.

Tuesday, 18 July 2017

Asset owners are enjoying a bubble - but a 'major loss event' could be coming


Here's a really sound - and pretty much Marxist - explanation for the current stock market boom from Southbank Research:
"We’ve created an environment — for an extended period — where we have a decreased frequency of loss events, an accumulating risk of a major event, and a bias that does not contain the wisdom of navigating any such event. So, market volatility is low. At the same time, this environment is increasing the potential for a major loss event.
A “major loss event” is pretty much just what it sounds like. A correction. Or even a crash. Something you don’t see coming until it’s right between your eyeballs, caving in the bridge of your nose.
Yet it’s been over a year since there was even a 5% pullback in the S&P 500. The S&P is in the middle of its longest such “quiet period” since 1995. No matter how hard you look, you will struggle to spot any sign of trouble on the horizon.
Here it would be tempting to make some analogy about dormant volcanoes. Eventually they erupt. Ka-boom! Pyroclastic flows. Herculaneum. Pompeii. Ash, fire, death.
But geologic time scales are so long compared to our own puny lives that few of us would be genuinely afraid about a volcano erupting and ending the world as we know it. And that’s no way to go through life anyway, waiting around for a volcano to erupt.
Let’s leave off the apocalyptics and suggest there may be something else going on today in financial markets. But what, exactly?
The something else is that the financial markets have become a semi-private means for the wealthy and well-connected to improve their position. There are two worlds now. One for people who can afford to own stocks and bonds and one for everyone else.
The share of profit going to corporations is going up. The share to workers is going down. In this way, corporate earnings are quite bullish looking. That’s great news if you’re a shareholder.
Wall Street and the City have the support of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, respectively. Asset owners and asset managers have friends in high places. And those friends have printing presses.
This is why it’s possible for stockmarkets to make higher highs even as most of the middle class in the Western world falls further behind. If you work in or around finance, you have a chance to earn a big wage and buy financial assets, which are bid up and backed up by the central bank.
If you’re out in the real world with a skill and have to compete for your wage with several other billion people who can also make things or provide services, you’ll be lucky to find a job and stay out of debt (unless you want to buy a home, in which case, borrow away and good luck paying). You’ll be lucky to keep the robots off your back.
Granted all this is just a theory about why stocks can go up while wages (for most people) struggle to match rising health, education and housing costs. But it’s not a bad theory. There are two systems. And they are only connected at the margin.
The world isn’t really a less risky place now that it was 20 years ago. It’s just that all the risks are in one system. All the benefits are in the other.
But don’t rule out “a major loss event”, especially when it’s the most unexpected. One trait we all have in common in the modern world is our increasingly short attention span. Our collective memory is failing."

Thursday, 13 July 2017

Bonapartism, Thermidor and Stalin


Trotsky's article The Workers’ State, Thermidor and Bonapartism is still essential reading. I abandoned Stalinism when I was 20. The Bonapartist Soviet state built by Stalin survived longer than Trotsky could have known, largely because of the Soviet victory over the nazis, which relegitimised the Soviet state and secured its position in Europe and the world. The fundamental contradictions of that state were never resolved, but the Bolshevik tradition could never be restored after the purges of 1935-39. The difference between bourgeois Bonapartism - developed of course under Napoleon - is that the bourgeois revolution can survive the elimination of popular participation. Capitalist relations, once embedded, will not revert to feudalism even with the restoration of aristocratic power, as happened in France in 1815 after Napoleon's defeat. BY contrast, as Trotsky explained, bureaucratic socialism, in the absence of popular democracy, is a husk. He believed a renewed proletarian democratic struggle could revive socialism if Stalinism fell. But the proletariat was atomised and the revolutionists were liquidated by the Stalinist regime. A restoration of socialist democracy was therefore never possible. Only capitalist restoration could happen - it took another 50 years after Trotsky wrote this article.

The strange thing about modern day Stalinists is they are incapable of drawing the logical historical lessons that the Soviet type states have all reverted to capitalism of a particular kind - bereft of socialist democratic traditions and internationalist class consciousness. In many cases they are ultra-liberal, authoritarian, religious chauvinist states. This ought to clarify the way in which stalinism strangled the progressive, revolutionary and democratic traditions of the working class movements in just about all countries in which it was imposed. Once all power was concentrated in the bureaucratic state and leaders like Stalin, the transition was inevitably one toward capitalism. The world-historic conditions for such a restoration did not exist after 1945 and the victory against fascism, achieved by the Soviet army and people. Despite the Stalinist regime's opposition to indigenous revolutions elsewhere, it did co-opt and ally with various liberation movements in the colonised countries, especially in the relatively adventurous period of Khrushchev's leadership. Only in the 1980s did conditions arise again for full counter-revolution in Russia and worldwide. It will take decades for a socialist movement, grassroots based development to return to these countries. This is not simply due to imperialist conspiracy. It is because of the reactionary soil in which such capitalist restoration can flourish in former stalinist states and the atomisation and petrification of autonomous labour and socialist movements in these countries.

Monday, 30 May 2016

What went wrong in Venezuela




The best insider description I've read on what went wrong with Venezuela's leftist experiment - by Ryan Mallett-Outtrim for Counterpunch. A catastrophic currency control system that led to speculation and corruption on a grand scale and emptied the shops. Essentially for fear of changing the Chavez legacy, the government of Maduro acted like a rabbit in the headlights - failing to radically reform or abolish the currency controls that were spiralling toward a full blown crisis:

After over a decade of remaining in check, suddenly inflation began to head upwards in late 2012. This was accompanied by a collapse in the black market value of the Bolivar Fuerte (BSF). For example, in October 2012, I purchased currency on the black market for around BsF13 to the dollar. Six months later, I got around BsF20 for a dollar.


This was the beginning of what economist Mark Weisbrot has described as an “inflation depreciation spiral”. The basic idea is that people in Venezuela saw inflation go up, so they traded some of their BsF for US dollars on the black market. ...

In March 2013, the government announced the creation of Sicad, a mechanism through which the state would auction off dollars to private industry. By July, weekly Sicad auctions were being held. At these auctions, BsF were being sold at a rate of around 11 to the dollar. By this point, the black market rate was well over BsF20=US$1, meaning the government was hugely subsidizing access to currency for industry. For every dollar the government sold industry, the government itself was losing a second dollar in its overly generous exchange rate. This is a key piece of the puzzle as to why the inflation-depreciation spiral has become so damaging.

The Venezuelan state makes money by selling oil on international markets, meaning much of its income is in dollars. Yet much of the state’s day to day expenditures are denominated in BsF (like wages). So, when the BsF drops, the government’s coffers should suddenly start looking a lot better. Unfortunately, the government has dug itself into a hole by effectively subsidizing the value of the BsF through official channels. By keeping the official exchange rate stable even as the BsF plunges on the black market, the government has to pay out more to maintain the former rate. For example, as mentioned back in 2012 the government was losing US$1 for every US$1 it sold through Sicad (assuming the official rate). Today, the Venezuelan government’s lowest exchange rate sells BsF at around 450 to the dollar. On the black market, US$1=BsF1050. Even from the government’s perspective, it’s still basically losing at least a dollar for every dollar it sells. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that under this arrangement, private industry has repeatedly complained the government has failed to deliver enough foreign currency to cover imports. After all, a system like this isn’t sustainable by any stretch of the imagination.
Worse still is the preferential rate, which was consolidated at BsF10=US$1 in March. At that rate, the government is now selling an entire dollar for the same amount of BsF that wouldn’t even fetch 10 cents on the black market. In the past, the government has said this rate accounts for around 70 percent of all official currency exchanges, meaning the government is likely forking out an astronomically high amount of money to keep its exchange system in place, even as it wreaks havoc on every aspect of the economy.
If private industry can’t obtain foreign currency, then it can’t import goods. This is a huge problem in an import dependent country like Venezuela. On top of this, the discrepancy between official and unofficial exchange rates creates its own unique phenomenon not so different from Dutch Disease. Importers are given an incentive to not actually import anything. A great example of this was a once rampant scam known as the carousel. Popular back in the late 2000s, the scam involved an importer applying for foreign currency at one of the government’s preferential rates, then importing a load of the product (such as medical supplies). However, the supplies were never unloaded. Instead, they remained inside the freight truck, and were again exported. Meanwhile, the importer sold their foreign currency allocation on the black market for a nice profit. The importer then applied for more foreign currency to purchase more medical supplies, and drove their freight truck across the border yet again. Under this scheme, the importer made far more money than they ever could through legitimate business activities by simply buying foreign currency cheap from the government and selling it at a higher rate on the black market.


Saturday, 27 February 2016

ISIS: A conspiracy drama



This review was first published on FringeReview UK 2016 on 19 February and is written by Joe Gill

I.S.I.S
Random Order Theatre Company
Etcetera Theatre, Camden

Low Down
“I.S.I.S has a strong cast led by Hampstead born actor Michael Culver. Michael played Captain Needa in “The Empire Strikes Back”. Now he plays Group Captain Beresford at the “Etcetera”.”

Review
What happens when a group of people decides they don’t believe the official narrative of events, and begin to construct a version of their own? Largely, they get called conspiracy theorists – or extremists. Sometimes they gather together to share their disbelief, determined to disseminate their view that the authorities are involved in a Big Lie to deceive the public.
This is the base material of I.S.I.S, Peter Neathey’s cleverly plotted and entertainingly subversive play. We join a group of 9/11 disbelievers who call themselves Seven Seconds (the time it took World Trade Centre 7 to collapse on 9/11), led by the charismatic but somewhat self-important Bob (Peter Neathey). He organises public protests to raise awareness of his group’s theory about the September 11 attacks, which, as we discover in scene two, has attracted the attention of the security services (even though, given its modest following, it is hard to see exactly why they would be so worried).
Sitting in a corner behind a desk throughout the performance is the wonderful Michael Culver (Star Wars, Secret Army) as a kind of old school spy master, whose young agents are sent out to infiltrate the Seven Seconds group using sexual entrapment. This thrillerish turn creates real suspense – Culver and the young agents, played by Jordan John and Ayesha De-Garci, both excellent, are assigned undercover roles as would-be group members, sent to undermine and ultimately destroy it. Culver explains how attractive young American agent Lataetia (De-Garci), seconded from Langley, will go under cover to bring down the group by befriending Bob’s partner Sara (Susan Hoffman), then ensnaring Bob using his own narcissism to destroy his leadership. Fellow agent John meanwhile befriends Brad (Michael McClare), an eccentric gay Jewish activist who is obsessed with Israel’s alleged role in the 9/11 attacks, and wants to overthrow the reign of Bob.
The devious goal of this subversion aims to move the group away from the “science” of the attacks toward a campaign targeting Israel – which, as Culver again explains, will fatally tar it as anti-Semitic. It sounds nuts, but as the infiltrators get to work, what unfolds is tragically familiar; and as anyone who has been involved in radical activism will attest, infighting in small groups around apparently obscure differences of doctrine can get very nasty. There is also a surprising twist in the story of infiltration and subversion that I did not see coming.
Throughout the play, the protagonists use a projector to play clips that explain their theories about the 9/11 attacks – and, ultimately, this is the political pay-off of the plot, the critical bits of data not normally aired on mainstream media that filter through amid the amusing drama. Nuggets of hidden history include the 1967 Israeli attack on the USS Liberty, protests by anti-Zionists American Jews in Washington, a speech by the late Labour ex-cabinet minister Michael Meacher, and another by John F Kennedy. And of course, the collapse of those buildings in Manhattan in 2001.
Amid the unfolding deception and sexual jealousy, we are invited down the rabbit hole into an Alice in Wonderland reality in which the villains are not the terrorists, but Western and allied intelligence agencies use “false flag” attacks to hypnotise the public and justify endless war.
While one doesn’t have to buy into all the theories, I.S.I.S is an unsettling, funny and mostly well-acted way into the “Truth movement”, as well as an indictment of security services’ underhand actions against peaceful activism. As the late Michael Meacher says in a recent clip, used in ISIS: “Sometimes conspiracies do happen.” Published February 21, 2016 by Paul Levy

Monday, 18 January 2016

Stalin and Hitler: the actual death tolls


I remember the communist idealism of my youth, when I believed in the cause handed down to me from my parents. I felt in the early 80s as a teenager that something was wrong with the "socialist system" as it was then called by its supporters.
Then came Gorbachev, and the brief hope that the inherent goodness of the system could be revitalised by a democratic reformist leadership. That hope lasted a short whole but, as I listened to people recently returned from the Soviet Union, it became apparent that things were very, very far from the cooperative socialist society that was once proclaimed.
So I turn now to the reality of the bloody birth and gradual deformation of that system, and why it could not be reformed. Personally speaking, I suffer from a terrible dilemma that I still believe that the goals of the socialist and communist movement were sound and I don't wish to constantly defame all hope of change.
And here and now, the reason why I am writing about the crimes of Stalinism is simply that I believe only by shedding all the illusions of communism, and facing the fact that the Bolsheviks of 1917 were essentially obliterated by Stalin and his regime, and whatever was glorious of the first decade or so of the revolution was remorsely crushed in the decade from 1930 to 1940. This occured not just in the Soviet sphere but also in the Spanish revolution, which like the Soviet revolution was crushed from 1936-39.
Fascism was defeated but what remained after 1945? We need to fully understand this, because in the 21st century there may yet be an opportunity to build an alternative system to capitalism. But that possibility requires a crystalline understanding of what can replace capitalism, which I believe is revolutionary, popular democracy, and what can't, which is a reconstitution of what failed in the 20th century.
Here are some very tough facts on Stalin and the nazis crimes in this balanced essay from Timothy Snyder in New York Review of Books. A sober assessment backed up by the most recent archive data. Snyder shows how the cold war led to exaggeration of death tolls caused by Stalinism - the 20m or 30m often quoted is replaced by 9.5 million based on the Soviet archives, including half a million who died of starvation in the Gulag due to the war. (Snyder asks, who was responsible for those war deaths? Well, yes, mostly the nazis, but not exclusively.)
What is most difficult for those who still persist in believing in communism / Marxism-Leninism, is the fact that Soviet deaths occured before the Nazi genocide began by a decade.
Of course the Soviet Union was isolated and surrounded by enemies in 1930, when forced collectivisation began. So it wasn't in any sense a normal peacetime. The nazis killed 12 million but another 20 million plus died due to the Hitler's war, raising the nazi death toll to 32 million. For some reason Snyder does not give us the grand total for Hitler's war, including those murdered on the eastern front and in the camps. War is the pre-eminent crime, according to Nuremberg, so this number should be included.
Snyder's key argument is the following: "Apart from the inaccessibility of archives, why were our earlier assumptions so wrong? One explanation is the cold war. Our wartime and postwar European alliances, after all, required a certain amount of moral and thus historical flexibility. In 1939 Germany and the Soviet Union were military allies. By the end of 1941, after the Germans had attacked the Soviet Union and Japan the United States, Moscow in effect had traded Berlin for Washington.
By 1949, the alliances had switched again, with the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany together in NATO, facing off against the Soviet Union and its Eastern European allies, including the smaller German Democratic Republic. During the cold war, it was sometimes hard for Americans to see clearly the particular evils of Nazis and Soviets. Hitler had brought about a Holocaust: but Germans were now our allies.
Stalin too had killed millions of people: but some of the worst episodes, taking place as they had before the war, had already been downplayed in wartime US propaganda, when we were on the same side.
We formed an alliance with Stalin right at the end of the most murderous years of Stalinism, and then allied with a West German state a few years after the Holocaust. It was perhaps not surprising that in this intellectual environment a certain compromise position about the evils of Hitler and Stalin—that both, in effect, were worse—emerged and became the conventional wisdom."

Snyder also says that Stalinism must take responsibiity in part for the 30 million deaths from Mao's Great Leap Forward, which followed Stalin's template on collectivisation.
Who was worse, Hitler or Stalin? Read the full essay here.

Monday, 23 November 2015

Is Corbyn unelectable? The BBC's favourite question



I was pleasantly surprised to hear a great interview given by Ed Miliband on the daily Corbyn-bash known as the Radio 4 Today Programme. He refused to be drawn into Jim Naughtie's very unsubtle attempt to criticise his successor, and to join in the new mantra that everyone now robotically repeats 'Corbyn is unelectable.' 
Unlike all his other critics, Miliband did not claim to have a crystal ball and vast mind-reading powers to determine how 40 million people will vote in four a half years time - given that we don't actually know what's going to happen in Britain and worldwide over the coming period, other than the likelihood that it won't be plain sailing.
The interview was a rare moment of relief from the constant stream of snipes, attack interviews and constant attempts by the Beeb to remind us that we are not acually living in a democracy. They used to call Chile after Pinochet a 'managed democracy', meaning a country where the people voted but did not truly decide who ruled. That seems to be Britain - vote for who you want but don't have the temerity to break with the fixed set of ideas laid down by our elite. I'd like to see an analysis of the main 8.10 interviews on the Today programme to see how many feature pro or anti-Corbyn interviewees - and to look at the balance of questions. That old myth of BBC balance has been well and truly busted since Corbyn's election. I get the feeling that some in the BBC and Guardian think this is all just a momentary aberration and all will return to normal (ie Tweedledum Tweedledee politics) once Corbyn is overthrown or disappears in a puff of smoke.
Of course the cynics will say that an endorsement from Miliband is like a death wish, given what happened in May. But what all these Nostradamuses seem to ignore is what Harold MacMillan famously called 'events, my dear boy, events'. George Osborne has probably ruined his chances of replacing Cameron as prime minister by taking an axe to tax credits. Beyond that there are a series of dangers for the Tories in the economy.
For the first time in modern British history, the export of profits to foreign owners of British assets has now exceeded so-called invisible earnings (income to Britain from overseas assets). This is a result of the systematic selling off British companies to overseas firms and governments. They are creaming profits to such an extent that the old fail safe of UK multinationals earnings from overseas has been wiped out by the reverse flow of funds out of Britain. We are now the equivalent of a colony being bled dry by absentee overlords.
Britain's visible trade deficit has been growing steadily, and rose to 5.9% in 2014, its highest ever level. This is due to a decline in our energy and manufacturing exports, and the rise of the pound, making our exports less competitive. As Anthony Hilton in the Evening Standard has explained, it is also linked to the decline in our invisible earnings, as already stated: 
The amount of credit generated by our overseas investments fell 31% between 2011 and 2014 to £73 billion. At the same time, the amount sent to overseas owners of British-based assets went exactly the opposite way.It rose 31% to £71 billion. The overall effect of the plunge in money coming in and the surge in money going out was to cut out FDI surplus from £54 billion in 2011 to £2 billion in 2014.
This fact is the one that should have Osborne lying awake sweating. His strategy is to increase "earnings" by flogging off the last bits of family silver - Royal Mail, Eurostar, etc.

Meanwhile the deficit budget strategy is in tatters as the deficit continues to refuse to go down thanks to self-defeating austerity.

Then there is our unprecedented property bubble, which thanks to £100 billion plus invested by tax-dodging companies in London property has reinflated the bubble that wrecked the economy in 2008 to unprecedented levels, with prices 40 percent higher than the pre-crash peak. For potential future PM Boris Johnson, the social cleansing this is causing is apparently nothing to worry about - the more foreign millionaires who want to use our homes to stash their shady cash, the better. As the Standard reported:
since 2008 there have been 27,989 purchases of homes, buildings and land in the capital by shadowy corporate structures usually registered in tax havens to hide the buyers’ identities.
Not only is this making London unaffordable for its inhabitants, and creating a kind of fake city for the global rich, it is creating an unsustainable bubble and denying the exchequer billions.
Then of course there is overall rising indebtedness: "Total outstanding non-mortgage borrowing grew by nearly £20bn or 9 percent in 2014, to reach £239bn." Including mortgage debt, people in the UK owed £1.443 trillion at the end of July 2015. This is up from £1.412 trillion at the end of July 2014 – an extra £604 per UK adult.
How are the Tories going to keep this all afloat over the next four a half years, when historically speaking, they have overseen a crash in each one of their periods of office.

Thatcher's first government exacerbated the recession with austerity policies, putting 3 million on the dole in 1979-81. The 1990-92 Lawson recession saw Thatcher removed and Major returned to power, only to oversee the ERM debacle, which pretty much destroyed the Tories' credibility until 2010.

Labour has not yet recovered from the reputational damage caused by overseeing the 2008 financial crash. But by offering a radical critique of this government's policies, Corbyn's Labour can be shown to have pointed up the disastrous policies that could yet again tip Britain into a major crisis by 2020.

There's been a major economic crisis in Britain in every one of the last five decades: 1973-5, 1980-82, 1990-92, 2008-11. It is highly likely that the cycle will be repeated, and the above underlying economic problems are the time bombs ticking for the Tories before the next election.The problems in the housing market relate to affordability - people are being squeezed by very high rents and prices are beyond the reach of millions.

This market cannot continue to rise like this. Most housing prices bubbles don't gently deflate. They crash. Presumably Osborne believes that Britain's shortage of housing and the love affair of the global rich with London will make sure that the music never stops. We've heard this tune before and as Einstein said, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a a different outcome is the definition of madness.

According to a certain reading of the historical data, property crashes occur every 18 years, so the Tories are safe through 2024-5. But this bubble has been re-inflated by trillions in government quantitative easing, so the rules of the market have been massively distorted and may not behave normally going forward. Besides some other 'black swan' event may come from the side that we don't anticipate. Remember the tech crash of 2000-1?

If the Tories oversee another crash, who then will be unelectable? Perhaps only Boris Johnson, the curly haired future king, knows the answer.